Wednesday, 6 July 2016

Corbyn, Trump and the Prince from Across the Sea

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Currently the country is in political, financial and social turmoil. With the lack of a clear leadership voice for the country, its difficult to see a way forward. The upper class leaders of the Leave Europe campaign have fled and the two largest parties are embroiled in internal power struggles.

For us, the massive surge of support for Jeremy Corbyn has been a concern, so far left unanswered by the Greens. 

Can it be argued that joining Labour in support of Corbyn is potentially a dangerous thing?

Here is a scenario that starts with suggesting that Jeremy Corbyn and Donald Trump find themselves in exactly the same position.

Putting the difference in politics aside, both are outsiders elected to leadership by their memberships over the wishes of their party representatives, with both sets of representatives having tried to remove their new leaders.

In England, the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) is currently trying VERY hard to remove its leader. But it is being checked by its grassroots activists (and in particular the Momentum movement) buoyed by a massive surge in membership.


Momentum in particular seems powerful. As most of the new joiners are specifically joining in support of Jeremy Corbyn, and engaging with Momentum to do so, it is clearly the strongest organising force in the party. 

But if Corbyn stays, with their support, the PLP though in retreat, is not going anywhere. 

So what now?  With weak alternative PLP candidates and a strong Momentum, is it stalemate until the next attempted coup? Maybe. 

Part of the strength of Momentum's position is that there is no viable, strong enough candidate within the PLP that can challenge them, challenge Corbyn. And that is true.

The Prince from across the Sea

On the assumption that there is no snap election called, one possibility could be that the 'Prince from across the Sea' would break the deadlock. 

This Prince could regain a seat in a by-election and position himself as, not just coming back to lead the Labour Party but to save the country. He would have the support of the PLP, be of wide enough appeal to the country that the grassroots activists would grudgingly accept him. And so he would defeat Corbyn in a leadership election, at the same time breaking Momentum across his knee.

A defeated Corbyn would be a massive blow to the progressive movement in the country.

Only the progressive alliance talked of with the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru could possibly defeat both the government and keep the Prince at bay.

Building that alliance cannot be focussed on joining Labour, its too unstable a situation. While the party is likely to keep hitting itself in the face for the foreseeable future, in England, a larger Green Party has to be a better bet.

In the meantime, the Prince, David Miliband continues to comment in the US media.

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